Scenario Planning for Policy Makers

19 September 2024
Risk Management

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For further information, please email David Leakey on [email protected] or phone on +44 20 7661 7817.


There are a number of highly effective tools that can be used to improve the robustness of your policy planning and development.

The methodical application of futures thinking, including horizon scanning and scenario planning, will enable you to think about and develop policy in a more strategic way, adding greatly to its value for both policy-making teams and decision-makers.

Who is the seminar designed for?

This course is designed for policy-makers at all levels. The intention of the course is to equip you with a set of tools and a deepened knowledge of futures thinking, horizon scanning and scenario planning, and how to apply these to your policy work. As such it is designed for people working at all stages of the policy cycle who wish to ensure that their policies are robust and future-proof, mitigating risk and enabling the development of more impactful policy interventions.

How will you benefit from attending?

You will learn a range of tools and approaches to enable you to incorporate futures thinking into your policy work. This will empower you to improve your policies’ strategic quality, as well as their likelihood of meeting your goals to deliver successful outcomes.

Learning objectives

As a result of participating in this highly interactive workshop, you will:

  • Improve your skills in scenario planning, horizon scanning, futures thinking and foresight generally
  • Be able to gain insights into the potential future threats and opportunities that could arise in any policy area
  • Understand how to use horizon scanning as a tool to better understand the drivers that can affect future developments in any policy or strategy area
  • Gain insights into how to use horizon scanning in combination with scenario planning and other tools
  • Consider how to respond to different possible scenarios

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Times on the Agenda are in UTC
Start time in Eastern Time is 08:00. Finish time is 12:30
Start time in the UK is 13:00. Finish time is 17:30

13:00 Introductions and Aim of Day

Session One Understanding Horizon Scanning

  • Exercise – why looking ahead matters and how it supports strategic thinking
  • How horizon scanning fits into the policy cycle
  • The Three Horizons Model
  • Who to involve?
  • Different business needs and the different Pathways that can be used


Session Two Using PESTLE / STEEPLE

  • Understanding Driver Mapping
  • Exercise -using PESTLE/ STEEPLE to identify drivers that are opportunities and/ or threats
  • How to prioritise future opportunities and threats for action (taking into account organisational strengths and weaknesses)
  • The range of possible strategic policy options for responding to opportunities and threats


Session Three Scenario Planning

  • The impact of uncertainty on achieving objectives, scenarios and how this relates to risk management (including creating a risk radar)
  • Trends analysis and scenario planning compared
  • Scenario creation exercise
  • Considering combinations of scenarios
  • Analysing the opportunities and threats in different scenarios
  • Using scenarios for stress testing

Action Points and Final Questions

  • Key team action points
  • Further questions

17:30 Close of Day

Our L&D ethos

  • We’re here to enable you to perform better!

Our L&D team

  • All former practitioners, now professional trainers, our L&D team have provided open and bespoke solutions for more than 100,000 public servants from 120 countries

Our L&D seminars

  • A vast reservoir of international, transferable knowledge and perspectives about effective, delivery-focused approaches to working smarter in the public sector


The price of attending this Virtual Training Seminar is:
GBP £250 per person
CAD $430 per person
EUR €290 per person
USD $320 per person

Book Now

Please contact us for further details, or to arrange a conversation with a member of our training team to discuss in-house delivery options, including tailoring the day’s training to your specific needs.

You can email David Leakey on [email protected] or phone on +44 20 7661 7817.

Crown Commercial Service supports the public sector to achieve maximum commercial value when procuring common goods and services.