Scientists call for internationally mandated assessment of climate change risks
Governments only have a “partial view” of risks associated with climate change and could be making ill-informed decisions about avoiding or mitigating them, a group of experts has said.
The group of nine scientists, climate academics and other experts are calling for an internationally mandated global climate risk assessment to enable policymakers to make sound judgements and prioritise effectively.
In an article published last week in the scientific journal, Nature, the experts said that governments are aware of some risks related to climate change but not necessarily how severe they will be, how rapidly they might emerge or which risks are avoidable.
“Without a clear view of what is at stake, it is difficult – or even impossible – to make a successful case for proportionate action on climate change. Yet, astonishingly, there has never been an internationally mandated global assessment of climate change risks,” they said.
“Only a global risk assessment, led by an appropriate international institution and designed to make clear the full scale of the global threat, can explore the full range of outcomes that global emissions reductions could avoid.”
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Building a clearer picture
The authors include professors of six UK universities, two of whom are also fellows of the Met Office Hadley Centre, the managing director of S-Curve Economics CIC and the director of CORDIO East Africa.
In the article, they highlight that a worsening global food crisis, extreme heat, intense droughts and floods, the collapse of ecosystems, and the threat of climate-prompted conflict, state failure and mass migration make it imperative that governments have as full a picture as possible when making climate-related decisions.
They give examples of policymakers realising that sea-level rise requires spending more money on flood defences, but potentially neglecting the possibility that parts of cities like London, New York or Mumbai might have to be abandoned due to rising sea levels, or governments’ awareness that more people will die of heat-related conditions in a hotter climate but not being prepared for mass casualties during an extreme heatwave.
They note that while the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change plays a crucial role in assessing the science related to climate change, risk assessments offer different information that, taken together, could build a fuller picture.
They outline that risk assessments involve identifying risks in relation to objectives; focusing on the largest risks, including plausible worst-case scenarios; using the best available information; considering the full range of possibilities; taking a holistic view; and being explicit about value judgements and limitations in the evidence.
A risk assessment “does not provide a counsel of despair”, they said. “It gives a clear picture of the outcomes that societies can still choose to avoid. A global climate change risk assessment would support the development of timely measures for climate change mitigation and highlight the extent of human agency.”
The experts acknowledge that there are challenges to compiling climate-related risk assessments – such as difficulties understanding rare or worst-case scenarios, the need to consider large numbers of interrelated risks, and organising the interdisciplinary teams needed to produce them – but believe that these issues are not insurmountable.
“Experts and practitioners from different fields must work together,” they said, adding that producing a global climate change risk assessment “is feasible”, as long as the associated scientific, societal and institutional challenges are addressed.
Read more: Adaptation efforts should be driven from the centre, climate advisers tell UK government
About Mia Hunt
Mia has been editor of globalgovernmentforum.com since 2019. She has 15 years’ experience as a journalist and editor and specialises in writing for civil and public servants worldwide, including covering sustainability policy and related issues. She has led the Global Government Women’s Network since it launched in 2023. Previously, she covered commercial property having been market reports and supplements editor at Property Week and deputy editor at Retail Destination. She graduated from Kingston University London with a first-class honours degree in journalism and was part of the team that produced The River newspaper, which won Publication of the Year at the Guardian Student Media Awards in 2010.
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