Canadian federal government cuts will disproportionately affect women and minority groups, says think tank
Analysis by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (CCPA) suggests that planned cuts to the federal government under prime minister Mark Carney will worsen equality in the government workforce.
Though the Canadian federal workforce is among the most diverse in the world, and the government a leader in employment equity nationally, plans to cut the federal budget by 15% over the next three years are likely to disproportionately affect women, Indigenous, ethnic minority, and disabled workers, according to the left-leaning nonpartisan think tank.
In its research, published on 17 October, the CCPA combined government data on the representation of equity-seeking groups by federal department with staffing cuts projections to determine the likely impact on historically disadvantaged groups in the core public service.
It estimates that women would account for 59% of the jobs cut, while racialised public servants would account for 26% of headcount reductions.
In addition, 5.5% of cuts would affect Indigenous workers – outpacing both their current share in the public service (5.3%) and the national labour force (4.3%) – and 8.3% would fall on workers with disabilities, against the 7.8% share of federal workers who report living with a disability.
The analysis said that the outsized impact on these groups is largely because most of the departments in line for staffing cuts are equity-leading departments “that have made the most hiring progress”, whereas those protected from the cuts have weaker equity records.
The departments that will be largely shielded from cuts – facing a 2% cut to their operational budgets over the next three years compared to 15% at other departments – are the Department of National Defence, the Canada Border Services Agency, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
Katherine Scott and David Macdonald, economists at the CCPA who wrote the analysis, said the federal government is an important source of high quality, well paid jobs for historically disadvantaged groups who have a tough time breaking into the labour market, and that the federal government had attempted to drag the private sector and other levels of government along “often kicking and screaming”.
The planned cuts represent a “big step back”, they said.
“Depending on how the cuts play out, we can expect wider employment gaps, wider pay gaps and the erosion of access to critical employment benefits.”
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Projected cuts by group and department
While 57% of federal workers are women, the CCPA estimates that women would account for 59% of staff reductions due to the large and male-dominated nature of the three departments being sheltered from budget cuts.
Job loss among women would be most severe in departments with the largest share of women employees, such as Employment and Social Development Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada and Indigenous Services Canada.
The proportion of women at these departments is 67%, 70% and 70% respectively.
Scott and Macdonald estimate that around 3,915 women could lose jobs at Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), and around 900 each at Indigenous Services Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada.
Looking at the possible impact on Indigenous workers, the two CCPA economists expect that Indigenous Services Canada and the Correctional Service Canada would lose the most Indigenous employees, at 359 and 318 respectively.
Racialised workers make up 31% of ESDC’s workforce and 41% of the staff at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, both of which are expected to see high job losses.
On the threat of cuts for disabled employees, the analysis said: “The departments that have made the most progress hiring people with disabilities will bear the brunt of the cuts – in this instance, the Department of Justice, Department of Veteran Affairs and Department of Natural Resources. The share of workers with disabilities in these departments range from 10% to almost 20%.”
At ESDC, it said more than 500 workers with disabilities could lose their jobs.
“In the hunt for defence dollars and tax cut offsets, we’re sacrificing good public sector jobs across the country. Rather than reducing strong public services and the quality employment that comes with them, we need to invest in them to support all Canadians,” Scott and Macdonald concluded.
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Promise to cap, not cut
Canada’s finance minister François-Philippe Champagne sent letters to ministers asking them to identify cuts to programme spending at their departments of 15% over the next three years.
The letters marked the beginning of Carney’s spending review, which is set to start in the next fiscal year with a 7.5% reduction, an additional 2.5% cut the following year, and a 5% cut in 2028-29.
In the run-up to the federal election in April, Carney’s Liberal Party promised to cap, not cut, the public service. The prime minister also said in September that any reduction in the size of the federal public service would “happen naturally through attrition”, as people retire or leave government for jobs elsewhere.
However, given the significant planned budget cuts and personnel salaries making up a large chunk of operational budgets, economists and observers have said this approach may not be possible and that layoffs are likely.
The CCPA said in April that the federal government could face over 57,000 job losses between 2024 and 2028.
The size of the federal public service has grown by more than 100,000 workers over the past 10 years, from around 257,000 in 2015 to around 358,000 in 2025. However, the headcount has decreased by about 10,000 since last year.
Read more: Canadian public service could face 57,000 job losses amid budget squeeze, according to think tank
About Mia Hunt
Mia has been editor of globalgovernmentforum.com since 2019. She has 15 years’ experience as a journalist and editor and specialises in writing for civil and public servants worldwide, including covering sustainability policy and related issues. She has led the Global Government Women’s Network since it launched in 2023. Previously, she covered commercial property having been market reports and supplements editor at Property Week and deputy editor at Retail Destination. She graduated from Kingston University London with a first-class honours degree in journalism and was part of the team that produced The River newspaper, which won Publication of the Year at the Guardian Student Media Awards in 2010.
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