Canadian government jobs highly exposed to AI, finds study – and recommends careful transition to greater adoption
Jobs within Canada’s public sector are among the most exposed to advances in artificial intelligence, according to a study by The Dais think tank, which highlights both the risks and opportunities of AI.
The report by the public policy and leadership think tank based at Toronto Metropolitan University and funded by the Government of Canada’s Future Skills Program, estimates that 74% of the public sector workforce are “highly exposed to AI technologies based on their occupational attributes” compared to 56% of the overall Canadian labour force.
There are more than 1.1 million public sector workers in Canada, across the federal, provincial, territorial, and municipal governments.
The report segments AI-related job security risk into four quadrants: high-exposure, low-exposure, high-complementarity, and low-complementarity. Complementarity refers to the potential for an AI application to augment or assist work, meaning that the impact of high-exposure to AI disruption could in some cases be offset by high-complementarity, while low-complementarity could make the impact of AI exposure more detrimental for employees.
It shows that across the four levels of Canadian government, federal jobs make up the largest share of high-exposure occupations, and a much higher concentration of jobs in the high-exposure, low-complementarity quadrant at 58% compared to 29% within the national labour force. The report says this is due to “a larger proportion of jobs in business, finance, and administration occupations than Canada’s overall workforce”.
Read more: Canada launches first AI strategy for federal public service
By contrast, the public sector as a whole has a larger concentration of workers in the higher-complementarity quadrant, in occupational groups such as senior management; natural and applied sciences; and education, law and social, community and government services.
“The public sector’s broad occupational diversity will require efforts to assess AI adoption opportunities within occupational groups, and for the specific roles and tasks of unique occupations,” the report stated.
Among public sector workers in high-exposure occupations, a greater share fell within the low-complementarity quadrant (49%) than within the high-complementarity quadrant (25%). The report says this suggests that the kinds of routine cognitive tasks currently performed by AI were “well positioned to substitute or replace” public sector employees relative to the national labour force.
The report also acknowledges the importance of non-technological factors in shaping the future structure and success of public sector organisations. Such factors include “human oversight, access to AI tools and training for workers, and consistent application of core non-technological values and ethical principles to ensure successful, responsible deployment of AI in the public sector”.
Tricia Williams, director of research, evaluation and knowledge mobilisation at the Future Skills Centre, wrote in the foreword of the report that “the decisions we make today will determine whether AI transformation will strengthen public service capacity or leave critical gaps”.
She added: “The public sector’s scale, diversity, and impact make it a proving ground for responsible AI adoption in Canada. If we can embed AI in a way that enhances – not replaces – the judgment, empathy, and expertise of public servants, we will not only modernise our institutions but also strengthen public trust.”
This year’s AccelerateGOV conference, co-hosted by the Government of Canada, will take place on December 9th, sharing insights from governments around the world on how to deliver better, more efficient and resilient digitally enabled public services with public servants from Canada and beyond.
This event is an opportunity to learn from government innovators, and will explore real-world transformation use cases in an increasingly complex and fast-changing world.
Find out more about the event and register to attend here.
What the report recommends
The report urges public sector organisations to prepare for the changes ahead by drafting and publishing “clear, plain-language strategies for internal AI adoption and use”.
“All governments should introduce strategies geared to multiple audiences including internal leaders, workers, and the general public, and be transparent about the objectives, priorities, resources, and multi-year milestones or outcomes.”
It added that these strategies would ideally be developed “in consultation with public sector workers and unions, and other key groups, in order to establish trust, buy-in and clear expectations up front”.
Another recommendation for all levels of government is to increase AI literacy with “guidance on privacy, data security, and risk assessment in business use of AI tools”, as well as empowering employees to experiment with AI.
Other actions for governments include seeking out “specific applications for occupations with a large share of employment in the high-exposure and high-complementarity quadrant”, as well as upskilling the workforce and updating existing tasks to ensure the skills needed to complete them are practically aligned.
The report recommends that all stakeholders be prepared for transition, from public sector employers and unions to teams and individual workers.
“[Stakeholders] can build upon well-established methods and tools… for establishing job transition pathways for workers facing economic and technological disruption,” it concluded.
“AI technologies can serve as valuable tools in the public sector, but are not a substitute for the strategies and bold actions we and others are calling for to modernise Canada’s governments and public administration to be fit for purpose in the 21st century.”
Read more: Projects shortlisted for Canada Public Service Data/AI Challenge
About Jack Aldane
Jack is a British journalist, cartoonist and podcaster. He graduated from Heythrop College London in 2009 with a BA in philosophy, before living and working in China for three years as a freelance reporter. After training in financial journalism at City University from 2013 to 2014, Jack worked at Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters before moving into editing magazines on global trade and development finance. Shortly after editing opinion writing for UnHerd, he joined the independent think tank ResPublica, where he led a media campaign to change the health and safety requirements around asbestos in UK public buildings. As host and producer of The Booking Club podcast – a conversation series featuring prominent authors and commentators at their favourite restaurants – Jack continues to engage today’s most distinguished thinkers on the biggest problems pertaining to ideology and power in the 21st century. He joined Global Government Forum as its Senior Staff Writer and Community Co-ordinator in 2021.
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