US election podcast: Experts give their views on the state of the race so far
In this special edition of Global Government Forum’s Leading Questions podcast, which is based on a webinar held in September, we look at the key issues in the upcoming United States presidential election.
Join Siobhan Benita as she discusses the key issues of the campaign with Dr Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on US Politics (CUSP) at UCL, and Kevin R. Kosar, a resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Listen to this podcast to find out:
- The key issues shaping the campaign.
- The policy priorities being set out by the parties.
- The early actions that the next president is likely to take.
Too close to call
Commenting on the “state of the race”, Gift highlighted the closeness of the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, even in swing states.
“The outcome certainly is not a foregone conclusion by any measure,” he said, saying that there is likely a “shy Trump vote – essentially voters who may not be willing to admit that they’re voting for Donald Trump, but will do so in the privacy of the ballot box”.
Trump support was underestimated by most polls in 2016 as well as 2020, said Gift.
Another issue at play is that “we’re out of the Harris honeymoon period”, he said, noting that Harris is now getting more specific on her policies.
“Harris really wants to make this election a referendum on Donald Trump,” said Gift. “She also really wants to emphasise the abortion issue, which has been the most galvanising issue for Democrats.”
Meanwhile, he said, Trump is likely seeking to portray Harris as a “San Francisco liberal” who is “too far to the left on issues like immigration and climate change”.
Kosar agreed that everything is to play for, with major debate issues ranging from inflation to migration. While Harris may have to try and create some distance between herself and Biden’s low approval rating, there could also be voters who are now suffering from ‘Trump fatigue’, Kosar noted.
“You would think, after 20 years in Washington DC and close to 30 years of studying US politics, I would be able to give a strong prediction. I can’t,” he said.
“I can’t because there are some cross-cutting factors that favour and disfavour each candidate.”
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About Sarah Wray
Sarah has over 15 years’ experience as a journalist with a specialism in the public sector and topics such as digitalisation and climate action. Sarah was formerly the editor of Cities Today and Smart Cities World, as well as a specialist video-based publication in the aerospace sector. She has also written for publications including Smart Cities Dive, Mobile Europe, Mobile World Live and Computer Weekly.
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