Cost of net zero less than a single fossil fuel price shock, say UK government’s climate advisers
Achieving net zero is a more cost-effective path for the UK economy than continued reliance on fossil fuels and “will bring a net benefit to society”, according to the Climate Change Committee.
In its new report, the committee – which is a statutory body and provides independent advice on emissions targets to the government – sets out a full cost-benefit analysis of the UK’s net zero target, including the cost of clean energy investments, lower fossil fuel bills, the health benefits of cleaner air, and the climate damages that would be avoided through cutting emissions.
The report, published on 11 March, complements its 2025 guidance on the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget.
It found that the cost of a single fossil fuel price spike like that of 2022 would be as large as the cost of the pathway to net zero across every year to 2050.
Reaching net zero would cost about £4bn (US$5.3bn) a year, the committee found, or close to £100bn (US$133bn) by 2050, which is roughly equivalent to the energy-related costs of the fossil fuel shocks that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The analysis, which was conducted prior to the current spike in oil prices instigated by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and subsequent retaliatory attacks, also found that each pound invested in reaching net zero would yield between £2 and £4 in benefits.
Nigel Topping, chair of the Climate Change Committee, said: “In light of current world events, it’s more important than ever for the UK to move away from being reliant on volatile foreign fossil fuels, to clean, domestic, less wasteful energy.”
He added: “There has been a lot of public interest in the cost of transitioning to a low carbon economy. Going through an economic transition is exciting, but a sense of uncertainty about the future is completely reasonable. As such, it’s important that decision makers and commentators are using accurate information to inform debates.”
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Avoiding damages most significant benefit of the transition
The committee said in its latest report that avoiding climate damages is the most significant benefit of the transition, with related savings estimated at between £40bn and £130bn (US$53bn to US$173bn) in 2050.
It found that energy losses would be halved from the £60bn (US$80bn) a year such losses are valued at today to £30bn (US$40bn) per year under a net zero system.
In addition, it said that the transition would deliver far greater health and wellbeing co-benefits than costs.
“Cleaner air, warmer homes, more active travel and healthier diets strongly outweigh downsides like extra public transport time or potential congestion from increased EV use,” the committee said. “These co-benefits are estimated to provide £2bn to £8bn [US$2.7bn to US$11bn] per year in net benefit by 2050.”
The Seventh Carbon Budget sets out legally binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions from 2038 to 2042, and would require the UK to reduce its emissions by 87% below 1990 levels on the road to net zero by 2050. The Climate Change Committee sets recommendations for how to achieve this and delivered its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget to government in February 2025.
Read more: Global warming could breach 1.5°C more than a decade earlier than predicted, scientists warn
About Mia Hunt
Mia has been editor of globalgovernmentforum.com since 2019. She has 15 years’ experience as a journalist and editor and specialises in writing for civil and public servants worldwide, including covering sustainability policy and related issues. She has led the Global Government Women’s Network since it launched in 2023. Previously, she covered commercial property having been market reports and supplements editor at Property Week and deputy editor at Retail Destination. She graduated from Kingston University London with a first-class honours degree in journalism and was part of the team that produced The River newspaper, which won Publication of the Year at the Guardian Student Media Awards in 2010.
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