Letter from Ottawa: Political uncertainty subsides, but new forms take its place
Canada’s general election has led to a refreshed Cabinet under prime minister Mark Carney. But, Michael Wernick says, the minority government still faces many uncertainties
Since my last dispatch, much has happened. You will know that prime minister Trudeau stepped down after nine years in power and that Mark Carney has taken office and begun to govern.
In between these milestones the public service played its crucial role in supporting democracy and ensuring continuity of government. The pace of the two-stage transition was brisk. Support was provided to departing PM Trudeau and his ministers for 67 days while Parliament was prorogued and the Liberal party sorted out who should be the next leader. Then the service helped onboard the new prime minister, delivered a first set of international visits and decisions, including a dramatic reversal of a signature Trudeau policy, and supported the new government during a 35-day election period.
From the archive: Letter from Ottawa: Navigating through a year of uncertainty
This was particularly challenging given the backdrop of Donald Trump’s assault on the global trading system and Trump’s specific threats to Canada’s economy and continued existence as a sovereign nation.
The public service carried out its role within the convention of restraint during elections, while maintaining vigilance against foreign interference, all while preparing to onboard whichever set of politicians would prevail on April 28 in a sharply contested election whose outcome could not be assumed. These were great accomplishments, but in the category of dogs that didn’t bark, they will soon be forgotten.
The month of May brought balmier weather and the second phase of a transition of power, and with it greater certainty for public servants. A refreshed Cabinet was announced, with some new faces, familiar faces in new roles, and a few new titles.
Carney surprised people by breaking with the practice of issuing detailed mandate letters (tasking lists) for each minister, opting instead for a single mandate letter laying out seven core priorities to serve as a rudder in the choppy waters that no doubt lie ahead. He also broke with the expectation that his government would rush to table a full budget, opting instead to move forward with unbundled measures and deliver a budget in the autumn. This was met with a degree of harrumphing but makes sense.
Two events stand out. On May 6 Carney met with president Trump and managed to avoid the Oval Office ambush laid on for the leaders of Ukraine and South Africa. Nevertheless, Trump remains the looming menace. The pressures come not just from tariffs but from his ambitions to build a “Golden Dome” missile defence system. The defence issues are being presented in the style of a mob shakedown for protection money.
On May 27, Parliament returned after a five-month absence. About a third of the members are new. One notable absentee is the leader of the Conservative party, Pierre Poilievre, who lost in his Ottawa constituency and is now seeking a return ticket through a by-election in Alberta.
Read more: Canada PM Mark Carney appoints government ‘built to deliver change’
The Liberals have a minority government and will have to navigate a legislative agenda without the numbers that would give them greater control of pace or outcome. It will be surprising if this Parliament goes the distance for a full four years. The last one ended in months of bitter acrimony and gridlock, but it seems likely all the political parties will want to avoid annoying voters with dysfunction for now.
You will perhaps have noticed the pomp and ceremony of Parliament’s opening on May 27 because of the presence of King Charles. This was only the third time the sovereign has delivered the Speech From the Throne in Canada. It served to remind Canadians that the underlying firmware of our system of governance is a British import, sparking a bit of grumbling. However, that was the point, to send a clear message that this country has a distinct history and constitution. Canadians took it in stride, having no great attachment to the monarchy but no great antipathy either.
June will bring more events that will challenge the new government and mobilise parts of the public service, notably hosting the G7 Summit and attending the NATO summit. The latter is likely to have longer lasting repercussions, through whatever new target is set for defence spending. This number can only go up and make the job of the finance minister even more difficult.
So the political constellation has settled down after five months of turbulence and the tasks for the public service are rolling out. Ministers’ political offices are filling up. Spending plans are moving through Parliament. A new normal is setting in.
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But uncertainties remain.
The Carney government has made it clear it intends to move quickly on its agenda, which explicitly includes how government works. One of the seven priorities is to spend less on government operations. A bespoke committee of Cabinet, chaired by the finance minister, is to “coordinate effort to reduce government expenditures” but also to “coordinate efforts to realise more effective and efficient government services and processes and to improve service delivery to Canadians”. One of the new ministers has “government transformation” as part of his title.
It all sounds promising to advocates of state reform like me. But it is also unsettling, especially for the large cohort of public servants who joined in the past four years and have never known austerity or cuts. The very first compressions in a long time, caused by a previous Budget, are starting to be felt, falling disproportionately on the younger time-limited hires. In the background, artificial intelligence looms as a massive disruptor, presenting both threat and opportunity.
We can be sure change is coming, but will it be well managed? We will learn more in the coming weeks about the prospects for serious “government transformation” and what direction it may take.
We will also see whether the new government can establish some traction and momentum on its policy agenda and how it copes with the existential threat from our southern neighbour. We will see whether a flurry of post-election separatist rhetoric in parts of Western Canada is a serious menace or a passing spasm.
Of all the changes since January, one will prove to be the most important. Canadians have forged a new sense of unity and purpose, thanks to Trump. Many are abstaining from purchasing American goods or travelling there to exert agency in the face of uncertainty. There has been a revival of pride in what we have built here and determination to keep it going and to be the best version of ourselves.
The phrase “elbows up” taken from ice hockey nicely captures a widespread sentiment. It essentially means that we will not be bullied. As we head toward another Canada Day on July 1, all of us, including public sector workers, will be able to lean on each other and draw down on reserves of calm, resilience and hope. We are going to need them.
About Michael Wernick
Michael Wernick’s distinguished 38-year career as one of the key leaders of Canada’s world-class federal public service culminated in serving from 2016 to 2019 as the 23rd clerk of the Privy Council and secretary to Cabinet. With 28 years as an executive in the federal public service, including 17 years in the community of deputy ministers, and three as clerk, Wernick is one of Canada’s most experienced and influential public sector leaders. He appeared frequently at parliamentary committees, participated in dozens of intergovernmental and international meetings, and spoke at many conferences. Wernick worked closely with three prime ministers and seven ministers and attended close to 300 meetings of Cabinet and its committees. He was the key public servant at the Privy Council Office during three changes of prime minister. In October 2021, UBC Press released Wernick’s book Governing Canada: A Guide to the Tradecraft of Politics and Wernick undertook an extensive series of media interviews, podcasts and webinars to discuss this well-received practical handbook for Canada’s political leaders and those who aspire to understand them. As a senior strategic advisor to MNP Inc and the Jarislowsky Chair at University of Ottawa, Wernick now provides advisory services and mentorship to emerging leaders and to new generations of students.
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