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Current climate policy ‘doomed to fail’, says former UK PM Tony Blair

By on 01/05/2025 | Updated on 01/05/2025
Photo by Daniel Hambury/@stellapicsltd

Net zero policies are increasingly viewed as “unaffordable, ineffective, or politically toxic” and efforts to phase out fossil fuels in the short term are “doomed to fail”, according to a report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

‘The climate paradox: why we need to reset action on climate change’, published earlier this week, argues that while awareness of the climate crisis has never been higher, meaningful action is in decline – largely because climate policies have failed to deliver the benefits governments’ promised.

Tony Blair, former UK prime minister and founder of the Institute, writes in the foreword of the report that this has driven scepticism in the climate agenda, which has been exploited by populists who frame climate action as an “elite-driven agenda”.

As a result, governments have backtracked, businesses have dropped climate targets and voters have elected leaders who “deprioritise the planet’s future”.

He says leaders know the current approach isn’t working but fear saying “what they know to be true”.

To rebuild public trust and a mandate for change, the report says that “pragmatic, solutions-driven and outcome-oriented” policy is urgently needed, and that government must “innovate and cooperate or face a future of escalating climate chaos”.

Read more: Climate concerns persist in 2025 but faith in government action wanes

‘Recipe for global disorder’

It notes that 2024 was the warmest on record, bringing with it devastating wildfires, hurricanes and flooding, and that despite pledges to phase out fossil fuels, demand for coal, oil and gas has hit new highs.

“We need international cooperation far beyond the current frameworks and a collective commitment to fast decisive action, especially from the leaders of major emitting economies,” the report states.

“Continuing on the same path and relying on outdated, ineffective policies will not cut emissions fast enough. Doing so is a recipe for global disorder driven by the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

“It’s time to redefine climate leadership and move into an age of delivery – an era of bold action, technological breakthroughs and transformative shifts in policy.”

Fossil fuels in the developing world

Blair writes that air travel is set to double over the next 20 years, that population growth and urbanisation is demanding energy, infrastructure and resources, and that global financial flows for renewable energy in the developing world have fallen.

As such, “any strategy based on either ‘phasing out’ fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail,” he says.

He argues that emerging technologies such as carbon capture should be made a financially viable option and put “at the centre of the battle”.

“At present, carbon capture is not commercially viable despite being technologically feasible – but policy, finance and innovation would change this. The disdain for this technology in favour of the purist solution of stopping fossil-fuel production is totally misguided,” he writes.  

“Nature-based solutions – principally afforestation – are the easiest way to capture carbon, but there is no comprehensive plan as to how to encourage them or invest in them.”

Blair also describes nuclear power as an “essential part of the answer”.

Read more: Paris Agreement goals out of reach unless top emitters step up, study warns

Collective action – and a focus on China and India

The report makes seven recommendations, one of which is to simplify global efforts to deliver collective action.

It argues that while the UN’s COP has been an integral part of achieving global consensus on the problem of climate change, the “process is moving too slowly to deliver the outcomes needed”.

Targeted, high-impact agreements that “drive real change where it matters most” are needed, including new plurilateral solutions co-designed by China and India that sit alongside wider multilateral processes. 

“As global trade fragments, we have a generational opportunity to realign trade and climate objectives as countries focus on retaining key markets for exports,” it adds.

Harnessing technology, and moving adaptation up the agenda

Other recommendations include accelerating use of carbon capture technologies; harnessing the power of technology, including AI (to make better use of the energy grid, for example); investing in “breakthrough and frontier energy solutions”; and scaling nature-based solutions.

It also advocates rethinking the role of finance, including philanthropy, and moving adaptation efforts such as flood defences and green cities up the agenda “because the impacts that are already locked in cannot all be mitigated in the time available”.

The report concludes: “Leaders must prioritise bold, systemic change – balancing near-term solutions with long-term innovation – to ensure the ‘Apathy Era’ becomes the ‘Progress Era’. By embracing the path of positive disruption and the potential of new technology, leaders can turn the climate crisis into an opportunity to build a sustainable, resilient and thriving world.”

Read more: Integrate mission governance into climate policy, says OECD

Report ‘muddled and misleading’, say critics

The report has received criticism, including from factions of the UK’s Labour government who view the report as a direct attack on its climate policy.

Some academics argue that it undermines the importance of net zero pledges and that it is harmful to suggest action to phase out fossil fuels in the short term is ineffective.

Nicholas Stern is chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and author of the Stern review into the economics of climate change, which was published by Blair’s government in 2006.

Stern described the report as “muddled and misleading” and said “there is far more progress being made around the world to decarbonise the global economy than it suggests” – citing the example of China, which is the world’s leading producer of renewables.  

His colleague, Bob Ward, who is policy and communications director of the Grantham Research Institute, added that the report “provides weak analysis and the wrong solutions”.

He said it “fails to recognise that the longer it takes to reach net zero emissions around the world, the more that households and businesses will suffer from growing impacts of climate change.

“So the challenge is to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, not to slow it down. Investments in carbon capture and storage and nuclear are fine, but they are not the best ways to accelerate the transition. Faster deployment of renewables is the best way to speed up the transition.”

UK prime minister Keir Starmer defended Blair’s comments. “If you look at the details of what Tony Blair said, he’s absolutely aligned with what we’re doing here,” he told parliament.

Read more: The missing link: exploring the potential of national climate institutions

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About Mia Hunt

Mia has been editor of globalgovernmentforum.com since 2019. She has 15 years’ experience as a journalist and editor and specialises in writing for civil and public servants worldwide, including covering sustainability policy and related issues. She has led the Global Government Women’s Network since it launched in 2023. Previously, she covered commercial property having been market reports and supplements editor at Property Week and deputy editor at Retail Destination. She graduated from Kingston University London with a first-class honours degree in journalism and was part of the team that produced The River newspaper, which won Publication of the Year at the Guardian Student Media Awards in 2010.

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